A Remarkable Recovery for the Housing Market

A Remarkable Recovery for the Housing Market | MyKCM

 

For months now the vast majority of Americans have been asking the same question: When will the economy turn around? Many experts have been saying the housing market will lead the way to a recovery, and today we’re seeing signs of that coming to light. With record-low mortgage rates driving high demand from potential buyers, homes are being purchased at an accelerating pace, and it’s keeping the housing market and the economy moving.

Here’s a look at what a few of the experts have to say about today’s astonishing recovery. In more than one instance, it’s being noted as truly remarkable.

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, Meyers Research

“The housing recovery has been nothing short of remarkable…The expectation was that housing would be crushed. It was—for about two months—and then it came roaring back.”

Fannie Mae

“Recent home purchase measures have continued to show remarkable strength, leading us to revise upward our home sales forecast, particularly over the third quarter. Similarly, we bumped up our expectations for home price growth and purchase mortgage originations.”

Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research for realtor.com

“All-time low mortgage rates and easing job losses have boosted buyer confidence back to pre-pandemic levels.”

James Knightley, Chief International Economist, ING

“At face value this is remarkable given the scale of joblessness in the economy and the ongoing uncertainty relating to the path of Covid-19…The outlook for housing transactions, construction activity and employment in the sector is looking much better than what looked possible just a couple of months ago.”

Bottom Line

The strength of the housing market is a bright spark in the economy and leading the way to what is truly being called a remarkable recovery throughout this country. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, maybe this is your year to make a move after all.

 

 


 

Posted on July 22, 2020 at 7:35 am
David Hogan | Category: Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Seattle Poised for Faster Recovery than Many Other Cities

 

It may feel like a tired refrain after nearly three months of quarantine, but it remains true: it’s still too early to truly tell the toll COVID-19 will take on our economy — both locally and nationally — until we are able to fully reopen and jumpstart  area businesses.

Thanks to our diversified economy, strong tech sector and attractive, startup-friendly environment, the Seattle area is well-positioned for and capable of a nimble recovery.

Several recent studies analyzing our housing market, population density, and educational attainment (and jobs that require higher education) indicate that Seattle is primed for a recovery that may be quicker and shorter than other major metropolitan areas across the country.

ATTOM Data Solutions, a provider of real estate and property data, put together a special report comparing regions across the country and identifying the housing markets more and less vulnerable to COVID-19 impacts. Their research puts King County within the 50 least at-risk counties. Furthermore, their data shows the West Coast as a whole to be incredibly resilient, with only one West Coast county (in California) appearing in the top 50 most vulnerable markets.

Looking at population density and education, Moody’s Analytics assessed the 100 top metro areas in the country and identified the U.S. cities in the best and worst positions for post-pandemic recovery. Their research notes that the cities best prepared to bounce back have low population densities and high levels of educational attainment. Seattle ranked in the top five metros poised for a quick recovery.

While the recent economic contraction has been profound and carried many unseen ramifications, our region’s tech sector has remained strong. Dominating much of our local economy, tech’s presence here may help buffer our area’s economy from worse dips taking place elsewhere.

It is true that some sectors of our regional economy — particularly hospitality (restaurants and bars), leisure (hotels), tourism and travel — have been hit harder. Those businesses and employees feel the impacts more strongly and may experience a harder and more drawn-out recovery. The direct hits to these sectors — with shuttered businesses and job losses — will resonate through the economy at large. As noted by Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner in a recent “Mondays with Matthew” post looking at how COVID-19 has affected employment, it’s likely that many workers in these sectors are renters, so their misfortunes are likely to impact the region’s rental market. As businesses are forced to close, many may struggle to find new employment until the economy is open and fully operational again.

Loss of tax revenue from the retail, hospitality and tourism sectors (especially from cruise ships, many of which will not be docking in Seattle for the foreseeable future), is already impacting state and local budgets, potentially causing painful future spending cuts over the next few years, as noted in The Seattle Times.

While our economy — city, state, and national — has shrunk dramatically in the second quarter of this year, economists still anticipate recovery beginning as soon as businesses reopen, and stay-at-home orders are lifted. Gains will advance slowly, but will continually increase through the remainder of the year. As Matthew Gardner predicts, the second half of 2020 should be significantly better than the first.

 


This post originally appeared on GettheWReport.com

Posted on June 9, 2020 at 5:42 am
David Hogan | Category: Community News, Economy, Local Market News | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Windermere Insights: How COVID-19 is really impacting local real estate

 

The challenges presented by COVID-19 have been felt locally by every home buyer, seller and real estate broker. Residential real estate, which was moving at breakneck speed through February, came to a screeching halt for two weeks in March after the initial Stay Home order was implemented.

As soon as Governor Inslee declared real estate an essential business, the engines started to rev again. Despite job losses and a nosedive in general consumer confidence and spending, home buyers started to jump back into the market. Theories abound about why this could happen in the middle of a pandemic:

  • With some exceptions, our local tech sector has generally performed well during COVID-19 and its employees may feel reasonably insulated from the worst of the economic fallout. For some, their stock options may have actually increased in value during the worst of the coronavirus.
  • Many buyers were already feeling the squeeze of low housing inventory and the defeat of losing out in multiple-offer situations. Some likely saw the lower competition during the shutdown as an opportunity to finally gain a foothold.
  • Mortgage rates in the early stages of the shutdown dropped to historic lows, with some 30-year fixed loans carrying percentage rates in the low threes.
  • Renters and homeowners with sustained income security found themselves suddenly doing everything from home – working, schooling, exercising – which may have motivated them to pursue a change in space, moving from dreamers to active buyers.
  • Lots of real estate “window shoppers” suddenly had a lot more time on their hands and spent hours perusing eye-candy listings online and watching more HGTV than ever, accelerating their property lust and their entry into the buyer pool.

Some of these theories have metrics behind them and some remain just theories. Regardless of the motivation, buyers are back “out” in force, touring prospective homes online, via livestream video with a broker or pre-produced 3D tours and videos. Brokers are showing them homes in person too – while following many safety precautions. Because of this strong buyer interest, prospective sellers are hearing from their brokers that now may be a good time to list.

For weeks now, we have seen multiple offers on homes in popular neighborhoods. Brokers, for whom business was put on hold at the end of March, are as busy as at any other point this year. Though the new normal is still not completely normal, the market in many neighborhoods and price points seems to be skipping along as if it were.

To learn how various sectors of our local real estate market are performing during COVID-19, we asked Windermere experts from Seattle and the Eastside what they are seeing.

Real Estate Across Seattle

Laura Smith, co-owner and principal broker of Windermere Real Estate Co., which operates multiple real estate offices in Seattle, has been busy helping brokers ramp up quickly and navigate a hefty transaction load along with new protocols for listing and showing homes. “It’s been a total whirlwind,” she said. “The market went from zero to sixty in a heartbeat.”

Smith explained that out of nine MLS areas in the city of Seattle, seven had less housing stock (measured as months of inventory) than what was available in May 2019, and the other two areas had the same inventory levels as last year. She noted that Seattle’s pending home sales during Week 3 of May already had reached 95% of the transaction count from the same week in 2019.

“Right now buyers want in,” Smith said, “and inventory numbers favor sellers.” Prices, as a result, have “stayed strong,” according to Smith, even in the midst of a health-related shutdown.

Bouncing Back on the Eastside

According to Matt Deasy, President of Windermere Real Estate / East, Inc., the volume of business has bounced back quicker than expected and brokers are busy helping buyers and sellers while following new practices to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“After reentering the market, buyers are finding the competition as fierce as it was before COVID-19,” Deasy said. His analysis shows that while Eastside pending sales are still down from a year ago, by Week 2 of May they were at 73% of last year’s figure from the same week. “Each week we are seeing the market steadily catch up to last year,” Deasy observed, “and I think it will soon head north of 2019 weekly transaction yields.”

Deasy pointed out that low Eastside housing supply is a challenge for buyers rushing back in to the market. “There is so little for sale” he said, noting that of the Eastside’s eight MLS areas, all but one had extremely low levels of inventory. “In fact,” Deasy continued, “three Eastside areas have a month or less supply of homes.” As a result, he predicts that “prices in popular neighborhoods will continue to climb” for the foreseeable future.

The Luxury Market

Patrick Chinn, owner of Windermere Real Estate Midtown, regularly works with luxury brokers and their clients. He observed that the luxury market was proceeding at a seasonally appropriate pace prior to the shutdown but has appeared a little slower to come back online as restrictions on real estate lifted. “Luxury sellers are typically not in a rush,” Chinn noted, “and the safety considerations of listing a home during COVID-19 may have delayed” their entry into the market.

Due to their high net worth, luxury buyers on the other hand may have been “less adversely impacted by the very real economic impacts of the shutdown,” Chinn said. But he also observed that fluctuations in the stock market usually make for “a restless luxury market, despite greater potential access to capital.” Chinn expects the pace of new high-end transactions and inventory to remain below what it was pre-shutdown, at least until there’s a clearer economic picture in sight.

Chinn did note that if a singular property is listed during an economic downturn such as the one we now find ourselves in, there can still be great urgency by luxury buyers to purchase. He gave as an example a Medina property listed during the topsy-turvy days just before the shutdown that quickly went under contract at its asking price of $11.75 million. “Iconic homes on iconic streets will still generate lots of enthusiasm, even during a downturn,” Chinn said.

He reported that one of his brokers went full speed ahead to list a one-of-a-kind beachfront property in Magnolia. Even during the lingering impacts of COVID-19, “there’s no time like the present for listing incredible homes,” Chinn explained.

Continuing New Construction

Joe Deasy, co-owner of Windermere Real Estate / East Inc., says that the early phase of the shutdown created significant waves for residential builders. Initially both the building and listing/showing of all residential new construction projects were stopped due to the Stay Home order.

As builders start building again and brokers start showing finished units, “the early pace will naturally be a bit slower,” Deasy said. He explained this as a result of builders needing to rehire furloughed workers and buyers’ agents implementing safety measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“I expect things to accelerate pretty quickly as we move forward,” Deasy predicted. His reason? “There’s so little inventory out there, both new construction and resale,” he explained. “The product that is available looks pretty attractive right now, since it’s brand new and no one’s ever lived in it.”

Deasy remains positive about the region’s new construction market. He pointed out that leading into the Stay Home closure, Windermere’s King County new construction business was through the proverbial roof. “Even factoring in the shutdown, our year-to-date unit sales are up 41% over last year,” he noted, “and our sales volume is already at $700 million.”

Looking ahead, Deasy predicts that demand for new construction homes will remain strong and that supply will have the biggest impact on the sector’s overall market performance. “Low inventory may influence 2020 sales more than the shutdown,” he explained, “which, all things considered, was relatively brief.”

 


This post originally appeared on GettheWReport.com

Posted on May 28, 2020 at 11:37 pm
David Hogan | Category: Economy, Local Market News | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Local Home Sales Trending: Before and After the Shutdown

 

In order to capture the full picture of how the market is faring week-to-week during COVID-19, Windermere has closely tracked residential sales activity in King County. An analysis of weekly pending home sales tells a tale of three markets: Before the shutdown, the first weeks of the shutdown, and everything since.

A pre-shutdown recap shows that the market was flat in January compared to the same month last year, while February saw a spike as pending units significantly outpaced those of 2019. And the first half of March – the weeks immediately before the statewide shutdown – showed slightly higher activity than March 2019. Then the Stay Home order kicked in, real estate brokers and their buyers were forced to the sidelines, and the market stalled. As a result, the last two weeks of March and each week of April saw pending sales well below those from last year.

Since the first week of April, however, pending sales have been on the rise, revealing a market that is gaining steam once again. Home sales are still trending behind last year’s but catching up remarkably fast. Whereas April began with weekly pending sales at only 40% of 2019 levels, by mid-May that figure had climbed to 79%.

Though the shutdown initially slowed King County’s spring market to a trickle, home purchase activity is now strengthening each week as the pace quickens for both buyers and their brokers.

 


This post originally appeared on GettheWReport.com

Posted on May 28, 2020 at 11:18 pm
David Hogan | Category: Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Local Market Update – May 2020

We hope you are weathering the new normal as best as you can. With everyone spending more time than ever at home, real estate has taken on a whole new importance. For those who are interested, here is a brief update on how COVID-19 continues to affect our local market:

  • Business was better than expected under the Stay Home order. COVID-19 did reduce real estate sales in April as compared to a year ago, however the number of sales rose steadily each week of the month. Sales growth continued in early May and we expect sales to increase slowly week by week.
  • The number of new listings dropped, suggesting that would-be sellers are waiting until the shelter-in-place order is over to put their home on the market. With local technology companies continuing to hire, buyers will continue to face competition for limited inventory in the coming months.
  • Home prices remain stable, with the median price of homes sold in April up slightly from a year ago. Sellers appear to be pricing homes realistically and buyers are not finding deep discounts.

The monthly statistics below are based on closed sales. Since closing generally takes 30 days, the statistics for April are mostly reflective of sales in March. Next month’s data will offer a more telling trend of the effect of the virus on the local housing market.

If you are interested in more information, every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.

As our current situation evolves, know that the safety of everyone remains our top priority.

EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com

Posted on May 13, 2020 at 8:02 pm
David Hogan | Category: Local Market Updates | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Local Market Update – April 2020

Windermere is focused on keeping our clients and our community safe and connected. We’re all in this together. Since the early days of COVID-19, our philosophy has been “Go slow and do no harm.” While real estate has been deemed an “essential” business, we have adopted guidelines that prioritize everyone’s safety and wellness.

Like everything else in our world, real estate is not business as usual. While market statistics certainly aren’t our focus at this time, we’ve opted to include our usual monthly report for those who may be interested. A few key points:

  • The monthly statistics are based on closed sales. Since closing generally takes 30 days, the statistics for March are mostly reflective of contracts signed in February, a time period largely untouched by COVID-19. The market is different today.
  • We expect that inventory and sales will decline in April and May as a result of the governor’s Stay Home order.
  • Despite the effects of COVID-19, the market in March was hot through mid-month. It remains to be seen if that indicates the strong market will return once the Stay Home order is lifted, or if economic changes will soften demand.

Every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.

Stay healthy and be safe. We’ll get through this together.

EASTSIDE

VIEW FULL EASTSIDE REPORT

KING COUNTY

VIEW FULL KING COUNTY REPORT

SEATTLE

VIEW FULL SEATTLE REPORT

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT


This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com

Posted on April 14, 2020 at 6:04 pm
David Hogan | Category: Buying a Home, Economy, Local Market Updates, Selling a Home | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

All In, For Community Amid COVID-19

Image Source: Shutterstock

 

Over the past few weeks, as the effects of COVID-19 have spread to everywhere Windermere has offices, we have seen an outpouring of support from our agents and offices in their local communities, embodying what it means to be All In, For You. 

 

The Bellevue, WA-based Windermere Real Estate East Inc. offices have been all in for their community in recent weeks by organizing “Feed the Front Lines.” This effort has raised upwards of $9,000, with many members volunteering their time to help pick-up and deliver much-needed meals to the medical professionals at a local hospital. So far, they have scheduled six shifts of lunch and dinner deliveries, totaling 415 meals. They have reached out further into the community, collecting donations for local small businesses that have been forced to close.

 

A flyer for “Feed the Front Lines”

 

Windermere agent Chris Gaines—based in Boise, Idaho with the Windermere Powerhouse Group—was inspired to deliver food and other necessities to the elderly in his neighborhood. Chris and his family spent the day visiting local grocery stores and gathering supplies to make care packages. After divvying everything up, they safely delivered the care packages to neighbors, who were sincerely grateful. “It was clear by the excitement of some of them that we were the first to have visited since all of this began,” said Chris of his neighbors.

 

Chris’s daughters delivering supplies to a neighbor

 

In other cities where Windermere operates, such as Palm Springs, agents are volunteering to buy and deliver groceries for the local elderly population who are currently unable to leave home due to the threat of COVID-19.

 

On Maui, the local Windermere office is routing Windermere Foundation donations to a local food bank. On top of that, they will provide that same food bank with a donation from each closed home sale over the next 60 days. Agents on Maui are also volunteering to prepare grab-and-go breakfast and lunch meals for kids at the Kihei Charter School.

 

The team in Maui, HI

 

In Nevada, the mother-son team of Reba St. Clair & Devone Donley are providing delivery services free of charge to their neighbors throughout the Lake Las Vegas area. They are picking up prescriptions and performing food deliveries, making themselves a dependable resource to their community.

 

Reba & Devone’s community flyer

 

The Seattle-area offices that make up Windermere Wall Street recently donated $2,000 to Refugee Artisan Initiative (RAI) to aid in the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE), such as surgical masks. RAI’s mission is to transform the lives of refugee and immigrant women by providing sustainable work in sewing and handcrafting goods.

 

As our agents and offices have proven time and time again, together we can make a difference. We will continue to share these uplifting stories of support for our communities through the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

All In, For Community. All In, For You.

 

 


This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog

Posted on April 8, 2020 at 7:53 am
David Hogan | Category: Community News, Giving Back, Windermere | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,